Title: A Two-Stage Optimisation Framework for Efficient Operating Room Management under Uncertainty

Speaker: Hajar Sadegh Zadeh
University of Melbourne

Summary:
This Research presents an integrated, data-driven framework for efficient operating room management under uncertainty. Using synthetic hospital data from 2018–2022, it combines advanced forecasting, preventive scheduling, and real-time decision-making to balance elective and emergency surgeries. State-of-the-art models—SARIMAX and a non-homogeneous Poisson process—efficiently predict daily and hourly emergency arrivals. A two-step stochastic optimisation model with Sample Average Approximation proactively allocates elective cases with buffer times for emergency case arrivals, while a Markov Decision Process enables adaptive on-the-day scheduling. Applied to a major Australian hospital, the framework reduces emergency cancellations and costs, enhances utilisation, and supports evidence-based surgical planning.

Bio:
Hajar is a PhD candidate in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Melbourne, supervised by Dr Mark Fackrell, A/Prof Joyce Zhang, and A/Prof Hamideh Anjomshoa.

Her research draws on operations research, statistical data science, machine learning, and stochastic optimisation, with a strong focus on analysing real-world data and developing practical decision-support tools. She has extensive experience in data analysis, forecasting, and model development, with an emphasis on translating analytical results into actionable insights, particularly in healthcare settings.

Her PhD is structured around four integrated stages: (i) exploratory data analysis to identify operational challenges in hospital operating rooms; (ii) forecasting emergency surgery arrivals; (iii) preventive scheduling of elective and emergency surgeries using a two-stage stochastic model; and (iv) real-time surgery scheduling using a Markov decision process. Her work aims to reduce cancellations and waiting times while improving the efficiency of Australian public hospitals.

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SEMINAR: WED 18 MARCH 2026 16:00-17:00 (AEDT, Melbourne Time)